Brinsbury seminar, 8
July 2005 click to go direct to any of the three topics: |
Beyond North and South - Europe's new
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The last enlargement, bringing in the central European states, could be seen as a reunification of Catholic and Protestant Europe. That perspective left most of Orthodox Europe and the Muslim states beyond the border.
The next enlargement should "fill in the gaps", (for instance, Albania, Kosovo, Serbia) unless one wants to risk them becoming "failed states" that would become a direct threat. It was equally logical that Switzerland, Norway and Iceland should be included.
Europe's borders need to be properly defined. Prof. Spencer suggested that current issues could be summarised as "the Three Ts": time, treaty and Turkey.
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Time was needed to consolidate the current position, and (in the
light of French and Dutch "no" votes) to make people feel their votes could lead
to change. |
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The Treaty - it was a mistake to call it a 'constitution' (80% of
which consisted of previous treaties). |
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Turkey - the nation should not be regarded as potentially part of Europe. International politicians had been lying to the Turks for 20 years. That came as a response to US pressure to control a buffer region between the Mediterranean and the Islamic nations. However there was a clear advantage in negotiating a special relationship between Turkey and "Europe". |
The relative position of Europe in the world should be considered. Looking at a globe it was easy to see that Europe was geographically a small area. It has a reducing proportion of the world's population, It was a comparatively minor economic power compared with the US, Russia or China. The European population was growing older. There had been some arguments that the balance of ages in the population could be evened out by encouraging immigration from north Africa and the Indian subcontinent. Over the centuries Europe has had important links with Arab countries, with Russia and of course America, though that relationship is changing, as US foreign policy has become more aggressive and Christian fundamentalism is spreading there.
There were however alternative possibilities for extending European union:
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Culturally with Canada, and with 'slices' of the United States
(suggesting the west coast, including California) |
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Ethnically with the Slavic nations |
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Geographically with the Mediterranean and Arab world |
Global warming had significant implications for Europe. Evidence of the melting
of the Antarctic ice shelf and the Greenland glaciers supported the 'warming' hypothesis.
Projections suggested a risk of the circular flow of the Gulf Stream reversing, bringing
colder waters to the Atlantic coast. The effects on European climate could be dire.
The map of the world would look radically different in the next one or two
generations, as climate change shows its irreversible effect. In the context of
globalisation the present "uni-polar world" under the leadership of the US would
change to a "multi-polar" one with several equal players.
The discussion with seminar participants brought out further points regarding the
feasibility of Turkey's membership, the future of the EU, reform of the Common
Agricultural Policy, the growing importance of China and India as economic powers, and the
evolution of relations with the US.
References:
Professor Tom Spencer:
Everything flows - essays on public affairs and change (Landmarks
Publishing 2005)
Public Affairs and Power: essays in a time of fear (Landmarks
Publishing 2003)
for more see: www.tomspencer.info .
Thomas P M Barnett:
The Pentagon's New Map (Putnam's, New York 2004).
for more see: www.thomaspmbarnett.com/pnm/pnm_index.htm
The EU and its eastern neighbours
Norbert Konkoly
Political Counsellor in the Hungarian Embassy
These countries want from the EU mainly trade (markets for their agricultural
products), easier and cheaper travel, investments and recognition (without criticism and
policy advice). Russia in particular, feeling threatened by the status of the EU in the
world and its economy, wanted a say in EU and NATO decision-making, and saw potential in
trading partnerships.
The EU countries want from the eastern European countries democracy and the rule of law, reliability and military stability, and co-operation in fighting organised crime, drugs, arms smuggling and terrorism. From Russia in particular we also want energy. The EU cannot afford unstable neighbours. Neither the EU nor any of these countries are ready for integration, but a new economic Iron Curtain must be avoided at all costs. The eastern European states needed to be integrated into the EU network - interdependence would assist stability, while poor neighbours would lead to risk of instability.In Hungary the prospect of EU membership had been a significant incentive. It could well be so for the eastern European countries. But a recently recognised factor was "enlargement fatigue", leading to declining public support for enlargement policies. For the newly acceded countries the postponement of the EU budget raised significant problems.
It was going to be important to keep the outside-EU countries within a European cultural context. This was what motivated the development of a 'European Neighbourhood' policy. Hungary was glad to demonstrate its contribution - two current examples were international police training and media training for Ukrainian journalists. In these English was usually used as a common language. In eastern Europe there was a longer-term problem - the significant proportion of ethnic Russian population embedded in countries outside the Russian Federation. Within the EU this was in the Baltic states, and outside the EU in Ukraine, in Belarus and in Moldova. Sustaining stability involved both Russia and the EU. Hungarians were historically sensitive to the issues, with a substantial proportion of ethnic Hungarians in other neighbouring states after the Treaty of Trianon. Sometimes a two-handed approach was appropriate. An illustration might be in policies towards Belarus, where hard messages went to the government, but warm support was given to NGOs and to cultural and media developments.
In the discussion with seminar participants questions were raised regarding Hungary's relationship with its "big brother" Poland, the importance of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989, the prospect of a possible east/west split within Ukraine after recent democratic developments.
The EU - a counterweight to the USA in the world?
Professor Stephen Haseler
Professor of Government, London Metropolitan University
Prof. Haseler gave some comparisons:
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the EU and US economy were roughly equal in size (the Euro zone by
itself amounted to about three-quarters of the US economy) |
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the EU has a larger population than the US, while the US is
stronger in military capability, better co-ordinated, and commits 3 times the resources to
research and development compared with similar EU investment. |
The European Constitutional Treaty may not have been perfect, but the
"no" votes had seriously undermined EU policy. In the next stage the issue would
be whether the European Union should be deepened or widened. The neo-conservative
administration in the US would prefer a widened, and therefore weakened, Europe. This was
particularly illustrated by the issue of Turkey. Deepening implied a tighter union in
Europe, driven by the image of a 'dangerous world' outside - not just terrorism but the
question of economic stability.
Europe had different policies and preferences in some areas. The US had interests in the
Middle East, Europe less so. The Iraq mission may have been a fundamental mistake, based
on a mis-reading of history and culture. It was in Europe's interest to stabilise these
areas, where it was the US priority to 'democratise', which is inevitably destabilising.
Policies towards the Russian Federation varied. A key issue was energy supply: Europe used
more natural gas, and was therefore less dependent on imported oil from the Middle East.
Europe had a high investment in natural energy. The current Russia-EU relationship pivots
on the exchange of energy for market access.
In the United Kingdom the geo-strategic policy vis-a-vis the USA has been a subordinate
rather than a restraining influence. By choosing to side with the US in the Iraq conflict
the UK had in fact given their national sovereignty up to the Americans. The anti-American
feelings which had been growing in Europe resulted from World War Two and the 'Cold War',
a period when Europe relied on US wealth for defence.
continued in right-hand column
The United States had 5% of the world's population, and 20% of the world's GDP - this was not enough to take on the role of the sole superpower. It was already overstretched. Stephen Haseler suggested that the aim should now be for a 'multi-polar' world, rather than uni-polar, sharing responsibility with China, India, Russia and Europe.
Professor Haseler responded to questions from participants:
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Iran was a more fundamental question, in that it involved risk of
nuclear weapons. The US had had difficulty in getting Israel to close its nuclear
programme, so the response of neighbours was not unexpected. Bombing of nuclear
installations was the only military option, but was totally inefficient, and created
widespread hatred. |
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An issue was the welfare society versus the free market. Europe
tends to think the welfare society is enabling. There is a tendency to contrast the UK
economy (US-style free market) with Europe. An interesting sideline was that Chinese
free-market investment in the United States actually risked weakening the US economy. |
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On the question of co-operation or rivalry between France and the
UK, Professor Haseler thought it unlikely to continue significantly long. |
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The EU and China. The EU appears to believe it can concentrate on
the marketing and bankrolling of Chinese production, and therefore offset the effects of
cheap Chinese labour. But the Chinese could set up their own marketing and banking
services. Trade barriers towards Chinese (or any other cheap labour market) might not be
wanted, but remained a serious issue. The current problems of Italian textile workers
illustrated the overall problem of globalisation. |
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The UK and Europe. Examples such as the adoption of the Euro, the
Schengen Treaty and adjustment of GMT were all likely to be achieved obliquely. Any
open steps were unlikely - the UK media were in the hands of anti-European ownership. UK
separatism would only become a problem if the Ł weakened. Perhaps it would be the 2012
Olympics that would bring in the euro and Standard Time conveniently through the back
door! |
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The evolution of the EU budget. This had been polarised recently as
'UK rebate versus reform of the Common Agricultural Policy'. President Chirac seemed
deliberately to have raised the question of the UK rebate to distract from the hurt of the
French "non". |
References:
Stephen Haseler :
The new Europe and its challenge to America
(published by I.B.Tauris, 2005)